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The battleground for the 2007 election will be in Scotland’s most marginal seats.  Due to the 4 party split in Scotland, there are quite a number of seats that could change hands with a fairly small swing.  For example, Labour would lose Cumbernauld and Kilsyth to the SNP with just over a 1% swing and Nicola Sturgeon only requires a 3% swing for her to take Govan for the SNP.

The list to the right highlights the top 15 most vulnerable seats. There are a number of seats in this table where the SNP, Liberal Democrats and Conservatives will have to work hard to maintain their gains at the last election.  However, and crucially in terms of any potential change of government, there are a number of seats where Labour are at risk of losing, principally to the SNP with a fairly small swing.

The selection of these 15 seats is based purely on the result of the last election and the low percentage swing required for a change of MSP.

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Battleground Seats
Cunninghame North
Ochil
Dunfermline West
Aberdeen Central
Stirling
Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale
Eastwood
Livingston
Falkirk West
Argyll and Bute
Glasgow Govan
Linlithgow
Kilmarnock and Loudoun
Edinburgh Central
Central Fife
Cunninghame North: 2007 Candidates

2007 Majority:
48 (0.16%)
Kenneth Gibson
Kenneth Gibson was born in 1961 and educated at Bellahouston Academy in Glasgow and Stirling University where he graduated with a B.A. in Economics. In 1999 he was elected as a list MSP for Glasgow, but due to an increase in support for the SSP and Greens was not re-elected in 2003. In the 1999 parliament he was the SNP's spokesperson on Social Justice, Housing and Urban Regeneration.

Swing required:
0.08%
Allan Wilson MSP
Deputy Minister for Enterprise and Lifelong Learning, Mr Wilson formerly held posts as Deputy Minister for Sport, Arts and Culture and Deputy Minister for Environment and Rural Development. Elected to the Scottish Parliament in 1999, he became a member of the European committee and the enterprise and lifelong learning committee. From 1994 until his election, Mr. Wilson was Head of higher education in Scotland with the public service union UNISON.  

Swing required:
6.33%
Philip Lardner
Philip ran a small business in Linwood, before studying law at Glasgow University, and then becoming a primary school teacher in Erskine. He served in the Territorial Army for 5 years, and stood as a candidate for Renfrewshire. 

Swing required:
12.38%
Lewis Hutton

Lewis Hutton was born and educated in Glasgow. He joined the Liberal Democrats in 1997 returning to Glasgow after working in Southampton and Aberdeen.He stood for the Scottish Parliament seat of Glasgow Shettleston in the 2003 Scottish Parliament Elections where he took 4.71% of the vote coming fourth.  His political interests centre upon social inclusion.Outside of politics Lewis has worked in the IT sector.
Parties Key Target Seats
Each of the parties will have decided on their own key target seats. The tables below are based purely on the percentage swing required to take the seat. Each of the parties will have decided their own key targets on the basis of swing required, local canvas return information and local intelligence.
SNP Key Target Seats
Constituency Current Holder Swing required %
Aberdeen Centrallab0.90
Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdalelib0.99
Linlithgowlab1.94
Glasgow Kelvinlab2.57
Airdrie and Shottslab2.66
Dumbartonlab2.68
East Kilbridelab2.75
Edinburgh Centrallab2.82
Falkirk Eastlab3.09
Midlothianlab3.39
East Lothianlab3.55
Cumbernauld and Kilsythlab3.94
West Renfrewshirelab3.95
Clydesdalelab4.34
Dunfermline Westlib4.50

In addition the SNP see Gordon as a key target seat.  Despite being in third place and 15% behind the Liberal Democrats, the fact that Alex Salmond is standing in this seat and the effort that the SNP will put into winning Gordon makes this a real possibility for them.
Conservative Key Target Seats
Constituency Current Holder Swing required %
Eastwoodlab1.06
Perthsnp3.58
Stirlingsnp3.63
West Renfrewshirelab3.74
Dumfrieslab4.25
Lib Dem Key Target Seats
Constituency Current Holder Swing required %
Argyll and Butesnp1.42
Edinburgh Centrallab2.03
Gordonsnp2.92
Edinburgh North and Leithlab3.86
Roxburgh and Berwickshirecon3.86
Labour Key Target Seats
Constituency Current Holder Swing required %
Cunninghame Northsnp0.08
Ochilsnp0.78
Dunfermline Westlib0.81
Stirlingsnp0.95
Livingstonsnp1.31
Falkirk Westsnp1.35
Glasgow Govansnp1.73
Kilmarnock and Loudounsnp2.01
Central Fifesnp2.16
Edinburgh East and Musselburghsnp2.31
Western Isles (Eilean Siar)snp2.52
Edinburgh Southlib2.96
Dundee Westsnp4.01
     
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