The battleground for the 2007 election will be in Scotland’s most marginal seats. Due to the 4 party split in Scotland, there are quite a number of seats that could change hands with a fairly small swing. For example, Labour would lose Cumbernauld and Kilsyth to the SNP with just over a 1% swing and Nicola Sturgeon only requires a 3% swing for her to take Govan for the SNP.
The list to the right highlights the top 15 most vulnerable seats. There are a number of seats in this table where the SNP, Liberal Democrats and Conservatives will have to work hard to maintain their gains at the last election. However, and crucially in terms of any potential change of government, there are a number of seats where Labour are at risk of losing, principally to the SNP with a fairly small swing.
The selection of these 15 seats is based purely on the result of the last election and the low percentage swing required for a change of MSP.
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Aberdeen Central: 2007 Candidates
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2007 Majority:
382 (1.81%) | 
Lewis Macdonald MSP
Following his election to the Scottish Parliament in 1999, Macdonald was convener of the Holyrood Progress Group before being appointed as a Deputy Minister in March 2001. His responsibilities as a Minister have included transport, planning, enterprise, energy, lifelong learning, environment and rural development, taking up his post as Deputy Minister for Health and Community Care in 2005.
Previously Parliamentary Researcher for Frank Doran, he was also Shadow Cabinet Adviser to Tom Clarke, the MP for Monklands West.
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Swing required:
0.9% | 
Karen Shirron
Karen joined the SNP in 1992 and has held various office bearer positions at both branch and Constituency level.
She was elected to Aberdeen City Council in 1999 beating the sitting Labour councillor by 7 votes. She was re-elected in 2003 with an increased majority of 336 and is currently deputy leader of the SNP council group. Karen also works for Brian Adam SNP MSP for Aberdeen North as a parliamentary assistant.
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Swing required:
6.01% | 
John Stewart
John was elected to Aberdeen City Council in 2003, overtaking Labour and the SNP to win the Berryden ward from third place.
John is deputy leader of the Council's ruling Liberal Democrat group. He is Vice Convener of the Education and Leisure Committee and speaks for the council on sport, culture and the arts.
John works as a part-time office manager and has twice been a successful agent for West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine MP Sir Robert Smith.
He is a member of the University of Aberdeen court.
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Swing required:
11.57% | 
Andrew Jones
Andrew Jones is the Senior Lecturer in Journalism and Broadcasting at the Robert Gordon University. He was, until last year, Head of North for BBC Scotland with responsibility for the production centres in Aberdeen, Inverness, Kirkwall and Lerwick. He is a member of numerous committees including his local School Board, Scouting Association and Community Council. This is his first election campaign.
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| Parties Key Target Seats |
Each of the parties will have decided on their own key target seats. The tables below are based purely on the percentage swing required to take the seat. Each of the parties will have decided their own key targets on the basis of swing required, local canvas return information and local intelligence. |
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| SNP Key Target Seats |
In addition the SNP see Gordon as a key target seat. Despite being in third place and 15% behind the Liberal Democrats, the fact that Alex Salmond is standing in this seat and the effort that the SNP will put into winning Gordon makes this a real possibility for them. |
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| Conservative Key Target Seats |
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