Scotland Votes

The battleground for the 2007 election will be in Scotland’s most marginal seats. Due to the 4 party split in Scotland, there are quite a number of seats that could change hands with a fairly small swing. For example, Labour would lose Cumbernauld and Kilsyth to the SNP with just over a 1% swing and Nicola Sturgeon only requires a 3% swing for her to take Govan for the SNP.

The list to the right highlights the top 15 most vulnerable seats. There are a number of seats in this table where the SNP, Liberal Democrats and Conservatives will have to work hard to maintain their gains at the last election. However, and crucially in terms of any potential change of government, there are a number of seats where Labour are at risk of losing, principally to the SNP with a fairly small swing.

The selection of these 15 seats is based purely on the result of the last election and the low percentage swing required for a change of MSP.

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Battleground Seats

Cunninghame North
Ochil
Dunfermline West
Aberdeen Central
Stirling
Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale
Eastwood
Livingston
Falkirk West
Argyll and Bute
Glasgow Govan
Linlithgow
Kilmarnock and Loudoun
Edinburgh Central
Central Fife


Central Fife: 2007 Candidates
2007 Majority: 1166 (4.32%)	Tricia Marwick MSP Tricia was born and brought up in Fife. She was first elected to the Scottish Parliament in1999 on the regional list. She took the Fife Central seat from Labour in 2007. She is currently the Housing spokesperson.

Swing required: 2.16%	Christine May Christine was born in 1948 Christine first became involved in local politics in the mid-1980s, and subsequently served as an elected councillor and leader on both Kirkcaldy District Council and its successor authority, Fife Council. She was elected as member of the Scottish Parliament for Central Fife in 2003, and has a particular interest in industry and employment matters. She is also interested in renewable energy and renewable energy crops, as well in Fair-trade and Tourism issues.

Swing required: 17.86%	Elizabeth Riches Elizabeth Riches is the Leader of the Lib Dem opposition on Fife Council and represents the local council ward of Anstruther and East Neuk Landward. She is a member of several committees and groups including; the Children's Services Committee, the Health and Social Care Partnership Group, and the East Area Development Committee. She has electoral experience out with her career as a Councillor, having stood in the 2001 and 2005 General Elections for the Westminster seat of Glenrothes where she polled 12.7% of the vote in 2005. She also stood for the Scottish Parliament Seat of Fife Central in 2003 polling fifth with 6.7% of the popular vote.

Swing required: 18.39%	Maurice Golden Maurice Golden was educated at Dundee University. He is chairman of the Conservative Future Association and is also a member of the executive of the Scottish Conservative Party.

Parties Key Target Seats

Each of the parties will have decided on their own key target seats. The tables below are based purely on the percentage swing required to take the seat. Each of the parties will have decided their own key targets on the basis of swing required, local canvas return information and local intelligence.

SNP Key Target Seats

Constituency	Current Holder	Swing required %
Aberdeen Central	lab	0.90
Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale	lib	0.99
Linlithgow	lab	1.94
Glasgow Kelvin	lab	2.57
Airdrie and Shotts	lab	2.66
Dumbarton	lab	2.68
East Kilbride	lab	2.75
Edinburgh Central	lab	2.82
Falkirk East	lab	3.09
Midlothian	lab	3.39
East Lothian	lab	3.55
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth	lab	3.94
West Renfrewshire	lab	3.95
Clydesdale	lab	4.34
Dunfermline West	lib	4.50

In addition the SNP see Gordon as a key target seat. Despite being in third place and 15% behind the Liberal Democrats, the fact that Alex Salmond is standing in this seat and the effort that the SNP will put into winning Gordon makes this a real possibility for them.

Conservative Key Target Seats

Constituency	Current Holder	Swing required %
Eastwood	lab	1.06
Perth	snp	3.58
Stirling	snp	3.63
West Renfrewshire	lab	3.74
Dumfries	lab	4.25

Lib Dem Key Target Seats

Constituency	Current Holder	Swing required %
Argyll and Bute	snp	1.42
Edinburgh Central	lab	2.03
Gordon	snp	2.92
Edinburgh North and Leith	lab	3.86
Roxburgh and Berwickshire	con	3.86

Labour Key Target Seats

Constituency	Current Holder	Swing required %
Cunninghame North	snp	0.08
Ochil	snp	0.78
Dunfermline West	lib	0.81
Stirling	snp	0.95
Livingston	snp	1.31
Falkirk West	snp	1.35
Glasgow Govan	snp	1.73
Kilmarnock and Loudoun	snp	2.01
Central Fife	snp	2.16
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh	snp	2.31
Western Isles (Eilean Siar)	snp	2.52
Edinburgh South	lib	2.96
Dundee West	snp	4.01


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