The battleground for the 2007 election will be in Scotland’s most marginal seats. Due to the 4 party split in Scotland, there are quite a number of seats that could change hands with a fairly small swing. For example, Labour would lose Cumbernauld and Kilsyth to the SNP with just over a 1% swing and Nicola Sturgeon only requires a 3% swing for her to take Govan for the SNP.
The list to the right highlights the top 15 most vulnerable seats. There are a number of seats in this table where the SNP, Liberal Democrats and Conservatives will have to work hard to maintain their gains at the last election. However, and crucially in terms of any potential change of government, there are a number of seats where Labour are at risk of losing, principally to the SNP with a fairly small swing.
The selection of these 15 seats is based purely on the result of the last election and the low percentage swing required for a change of MSP.
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Bruce Crawford MSP
Before being elected as an MSP, Bruce Crawford was leader of Perth and Kinross Council.
Bruce is a list member MSP for Mid Scotland and Fife, and stood for this constituency in 2003.
He is currently the SNP Shadow Minister for Parliament.
Swing required: 0.95%
Dr. Sylvia Jackson
Dr Jackson was born in 1946 in Lincolnshire and educated at Hull and Stirling University, where she earned a PhD in education.
She was a chemistry teacher, education researcher and lecturer before her election to the Scottish Parliament.
Ms Jackson is currently a backbench MSP. In addition, she is currently convener of the Subordinate Legislation Committee and a member of the parliament's Local Government and Transport Committee.
Swing required: 3.63%
Bob Dalrymple
Bob Dalrymple was born in 1975 in Dumfries, and graduated from Edinburgh University in 1997 with an LL.B. While at university he was elected president of Edinburgh University Students' Association, and won the John Smith Memorial Mace, the British Isles debating championship.
Bob's professional background is in the private sector. He currently works in Stirling as a marketer on a well-known brand of Scotch whisky.
Alex Cole Hamilton
Alex was ranked number one on the Lib Dem list for Mid Scotland and Fife, ahead of sitting MSP Andrew Arbuckle. He works as the policy and communications officer for Fairbridge in Scotland. He was the Scottish Parliamentary candidate for Kirkcaldy in 2003.
Parties Key Target Seats
Each of the parties will have decided on their own key target seats. The tables below are based purely on the percentage swing required to take the seat. Each of the parties will have decided their own key targets on the basis of swing required, local canvas return information and local intelligence.
In addition the SNP see Gordon as a key target seat. Despite being in third place and 15% behind the Liberal Democrats, the fact that Alex Salmond is standing in this seat and the effort that the SNP will put into winning Gordon makes this a real possibility for them.
