ScotlandVotes

For the last few weeks we covered the opinion polls in the run up to the election campaign. Now it is all over, bar the appointment of First Minister, just how accurate were they?

ScotlandVotes also publised a regular poll of polls and we will also take a look at how the final poll of polls faired against the real result on May 3rd.

The following is an edited excerpt is taken from the excellent UK Polling Report Blog by Anthony Wells. You can find it here.

With the results from the Scottish election in, how did the pollsters do? All the pollsters underestimated the level of Conservative support in the constituency section (and all by the same amount), Populus’s Labour support was too low and YouGov’s SNP support too high, leaving ICM as the most accurate in the constituency section.

Constituency Vote

RESULT YouGov ICM Populus
Conservative 16.6 -3.6 -3.6 -3.6
Labour 32.2 -1.2 -0.2 -3.2
Lib Dem 16.2 -2.2 -0.2 -1.2
SNP 32.9 4.1 1.1 -0.
Avg Error 2.8 1.7 2.0

Polling predictions were closer in the regional vote, with all three pollsters have an average error below 2% on the 4 main parties. Populus and ICM’s figures for the Liberal Democrats were both noticably high, but very accurate figures for the other parties meant Populus ended up with the figures closest to the actual result. YouGov were close behind, but got the balance of support amongst the smaller parties wrong, overestimating the level of support for the Greens - this is perhaps the result of switching to including all the minor parties in their question prompt for their last few polls. The final YouGov poll not to prompt using minor parties would have had an average error of 2.0% for the main 4 parties, and 1.6% if you included the Greens - suggesting it would have been less accurate on the main parties, but more accurate for the Green share of the vote. That said, it was done in the middle of April, so voting intention could have changed over the last couple of weeks of the campaign.

Regional Vote
RESULT YouGov ICM Populus
Conservative 13.9 -0.9 -0.9 0.1
Labour 29.2 -2.2 -0.2 -1.2
Lib Dem 11.3 -1.3 4.7 3.7
SNP 31.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0
Green 4.0 5.0 0.0 0.0
Average Error 1.4 1.7 1.3
Average Error (excld. Greens) 2.1 1.4 1.0

Poll of Polls Performance

Constituency Vote
Actual Poll of Polls Diff
Lab 32.2 31 -1.1
SNP 32.9 36 +3.1
Con 16.6 13 -3.6
Lib Dem 16.2 15 -1.2
Avg Error -0.7

Regional Vote
Actual Poll of Polls Diff
Lab 29.2 28 -1.2
SNP 31 32 +1
Con 13.9 13 -0.9
Lib Dem 11.3 13 +1.7
Green 4 5 +1
Avg Error +1.6

With the final count announced it was down to the wire. The SNP edged ahead of Labour to take 47 seats against Labour’s 46. However with the Lib Dems on 16 the would only have 63 MSPs together, 2 short of a majority coalition.

It is likely that either the Lib Dems will go into coalition with the SNP with support from the 2 Greens and Margo McDonald, or that the SNP might attempt minority government by themselves.

Minority government would be difficult and Salmond would probably struggle to achieve much of his policy agenda.

Keep an eye on scotlandvotes.com for updates on the coalition negotiations and the resulting Executive and policy announcements.

The SNP have tonight secured major swings from Labour and the Lib Dems. Swings to SNP have included:

15% in Airdrie and Shotts
12.3% in East Lothian
10.7% in Gordon
8.4% in Midlothian
9.5% in Stirling
8.5% in West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
7.8% in Maryhill
8.9% in Dumbarton
11.2% in Aberdeen South
9.5% in Glasgow Shettleston

SNP have not gained Cumernauld and Kilsyth. Govan is too close to call. Looks like Labour have managed to get their vote out in some of the seats that are vital for them to keep.

On a swing of 6.1% the SNP have taken Dundee West. So far the SNP have gained between a 5% and 7% swing. This looks set to be a close election!

SNP set to form Executive if the swing of 6.9% is continued across the country

The following is an exclusive for scotlandvotes.com. Alex Salmond puts forward his case for voting SNP in tomorrow’s election.

On Thursday, the people of Scotland have the opportunity to vote for a new government and progress for our nation.

The SNP manifesto is brimful of ideas to make Scotland more successful.

That is why we are running a totally positive campaign. We want to focus all of our efforts on earning the trust of the people of Scotland, and delivering our policies in government.

My pledge is to build Scottish success in every area, and ensure that we make the most of every opportunity. That’s what brought me into public life, and it’s why I seek the privilege of leading Scotland’s government.

Throughout this election campaign, the other parties – to a greater or lesser extent – have spent their time and resources talking about the SNP. By contrast, the SNP’s campaign has been outward looking and forward looking – we have talked about Scotland and what we can do.

If the SNP are successful, our new government will scrap the unfair Council Tax and deliver fairer, lower local tax. We will introduce smaller class sizes in the crucial early years, protect local healthcare, increase visible policing, boost Scottish business with rates cuts, develop our huge renewables potential, and play our part in creating an environment which will encourage a new vibrancy in the cultural life of Scotland.

We will get the country moving in the right direction. This election is about leadership and choosing a new government for Scotland.

The question of independence will be decided in the referendum we propose for 2010 – which is hugely popular because it reflects the bond of trust we have with the people of Scotland. And the circumstances in which we will win that referendum will be as a successful government delivering solid achievement and progress, building credibility with the people of Scotland.

A theme which has transcended this election has been empowering people. Our referendum policy is a vital illustration of that commitment to trusting the people. But it goes beyond that, because empowerment reflects the very ethos of the SNP as a party, and, if we are successful, as a government.

SNP support stretches right across Scottish society, among all social and economic groups. We are the national party of Scotland – a part of all that we experience – and I firmly believe that an SNP government will reflect and speak to Scotland in all of its diversity. That is the challenge of leadership in a modern society.

So we have the ambition, the vision, and the policies for Scotland.

The SNP are working hard to earn trust, to become the next government of Scotland, and the polls give us great encouragement that we are on track to achieve this.

After 8 years of disappointment and under-performance, it’s time for Scotland to move forward.

The SNP are ready to govern. And I am ready to be Scotland’s next First Minister.

The SNP website can be found here www.snp.org

www.ScotlandVotes.com shows SNP 5 seats ahead and able to form a wafer thin coalition majority with the Lib Dems

The day before Scotland votes and Weber Shandwick’s latest Poll of Polls predicts that the SNP would be the largest party in the parliament with 48 seats. However, Labour is only five seats behind on 43.

With the Lib Dems projected to pick up 18 seats, only the SNP would be in a position to form a majority coalition with them.

However, historically the opinion polls are notoriously poor at picking up votes for the minor parties and independents therefore the actual result could be much closer. Any gains for the smaller parties are most likely to impact the SNP.

For the constituency vote the poll puts Labour on 31%, SNP on 36%, Conservatives on 13%, and Liberal Democrats on 15%. For the regional vote Labour are on 28%, SNP on 32%, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats on 13%, Green Party on 5% and SSP on 2%. Other parties pick up 5% on the constituency and 6% on the regional vote.

Using Weber Shandwick’s election predictor, this poll of polls would see 43 Labour MSPs, 48 SNP, 16 Conservatives 18 Liberal Democrats, and 4 for the Greens.

Weber Shandwick director of public affairs Moray Macdonald said: “On the eve of the election there appears to be a slight tightening of the gap between the SNP and Labour. With the vote looking close two things will be crucial.

“Firstly, the SNP need to make good constituency gains and they need to win seats outwith the projected swing including Gordon and Glasgow Kelvin.

“Secondly, the smaller parties will play a vital role. If the Greens, SSP or independents do even slightly better than this poll suggests then that could have a major impact on which party has the most seats.

“The result tomorrow will rely on the ability of Labour and the SNP to get their vote out in the key constituencies. There is no doubt it will be worth staying up until the early hours of Friday morning to see what happens in seats like East Kilbride, Gordon, Paisley South and Livingston.

“The performance of the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats will also be important. If the Tories manage to make gains in any of their target seats, this is most likely to dent Labour. In seats like Edinburgh Central the SNP and Liberals are both fighting to take the seat from Labour. The result there could be decisive for the whole country.

“With the poll looking this close I would urge everyone on Thursday to go out and cast their vote. This time your vote really could make a difference.”

The following is an exclusive guest article for scotlandvotes.com. This is the first from the main party leaders. Articles from the other party leaders will be posted over the next few days.

Annabel Goldie
Scottish Conservative Leader

The first eight years of the Scottish Parliament have served as a major disappointment to the people of Scotland. After an authoritative endorsement for its creation at the 1997 referendum, the people of Scotland expected their Parliament to be a beacon of national pride. Instead, it has become a source of anger, in some cases embarrassment.

However, none of this has been the fault of the Scottish Parliament, or of devolution. Quite the opposite; it has been the fault of the Lib-Lab Pact, because it has failed to deliver on the bread and butter issues people wanted addressed when they voted for devolution. On Thursday, we have an opportunity to move Scotland on.

That’s what the Scottish Conservatives have been focussing on throughout this election. First and foremost, we will fight back against crime and drugs abuse. A million crimes and offences were committed in Scotland last year, and there was a drug-related death almost every day. We have a billion pound, four year spending commitment which will be the biggest assault on crime and drugs ever seen in Scotland. We will build more prison space, hire more police and provide more drugs rehabilitation. Those who say that cutting crime is impossible are wrong – we’ll do it.

Secondly, we will tackle Scotland’s impending home-ownership disaster. Last week, Lochgelly became the last town in Britain to have an average house price of over £100,000. When we consider, in addition, that the percentage of Scottish towns unaffordable for nurses has increased from 5% to 62% and for teachers from 0% to 27%, it’s little wonder that many younger people identify the hurdles involved in buying a home as the biggest they face. Again, we have sensible proposals to deal with this big, real issue. We will introduce local Affordable Homes Trusts, worth £100m a year, to which would-be home owners could apply for shared-equity assistance to buy a home of their choice. These trusts – a partnership between the government and private finance – would far exceed any similar schemes in place, and would be the biggest boost to home ownership that Scotland has seen since the Right to Buy was introduced a quarter of a century ago.

Thirdly, we will ensure that hard-working families are given greater reward for their work and their taxes. Scottish Conservatives will encourage and enable local authorities to make pre-school nursery care much more flexible. Currently, parents are forced to use their nursery entitlement at one of a narrow list of providers drawn up by the local authority. We want to see this list expanded so that parents, not politicians, choose where to send their children. We’d also require all public sector employers, and encourage those in the private sector, to offer the salary-sacrifice childcare voucher scheme to their employees, so that parents can pay for childcare out of untaxed income.

Scottish Conservatives will also make sure that these families receive a quality service from the NHS. Despite higher taxes, and increased funding, acute healthcare services like maternity and A&E provision are being closed down and centralised, whilst waiting lists for elective procedures have gone up. We’ll ensure that acute services are more local, and that elective operations can be carried out at a hospital of the patient’s choice, which could lead to the total elimination of waiting lists in Scotland.

For those following this election campaign in the newspapers and on television, I imagine it has been something of a disappointment. We have seen Alex Salmond and Jack McConnell bashing each other to submission, with Lib Dem leader Nicol Stephen lying in wait for one of them to buy him off in a coalition deal.

That’s why, right from the start, I said that the Scottish Conservatives would be different. I said that we’d not sell our policies in any pact of coalition, and we won’t. I said we’d campaign on the bread and butter issues that matter to people, and we have. Where others are trading in negativity, we are trading in optimism. Where others are trading in smear and fear, we are trading in hope and opportunity. Where others are giving Scotland something to vote against, we are giving Scotland something to vote for.

It is crucial that we offer this to the people of Scotland, because by ensuring that the Scottish Parliament works we are also holding together the United Kingdom. The Lib-Lab Pact has put the Union at risk by making such a mess of devolution, because its failure has merely encouraged support for the SNP. Scottish Conservatives are the only true Unionists, because we are the only party able to deliver a strong and confident Scotland within a strong and confident Britain. We are showing the people of Scotland that we are ‘Your Voice in Parliament’.

The Scottish Conservative website can be found here: www.yourvoiceinparliament.com

ScotlandVotes election predictor shows that both the SNP and Labour would have enough MSPs to form a coalition with the Lib Dems.

One week before Scotland goes to the polls and Weber Shandwick’s latest Poll of Polls shows that the SNP would be the largest party with 47 seats. However, Labour is only four seats behind on 43. With the Liberal Democrats on 22 seats, both Labour and the SNP would have enough MSPs to form a majority coalition government.

Key Labour figures look set to fall including the Health Minister Andy Kerr, Education Minister Hugh Henry, Deputy Enterprise Minister Allan Wilson and Deputy Presiding Officer Trish Godman.

For the constituency vote the poll puts Labour on 31%, SNP on 35%, Conservatives on 13%, and Liberal Democrats on 16%. For the regional vote Labour are on 28%, SNP on 33%, Conservative on 12%, Liberal Democrats on 15% and the Green Party on 5%.

Using Weber Shandwick’s election predictor, this poll of polls would see 43 Labour MSPs, 47 SNP, 15 Conservatives 22 Liberal Democrats, and 1 each for the SSP and Greens.

Weber Shandwick director of public affairs Moray Macdonald said: “All the opinion polls seem to be confirming that Labour is in for a terrible time on election night. However, despite the SNP maintaining a lead in the polls there is a real chance that government could be stolen from under its nose if the Lib Dems choose to side with Labour.

“This poll demonstrates that it is crucial for the SNP to make real progress in key Labour constituencies if they are to stand a chance of being the largest party in the Parliament. If the SNP don’t topple Andy Kerr in East Kilbride and Hugh Henry in Paisley South then it is unlikely that we will see Alex Salmond as First Minister.”

Based on this poll of polls key constituencies that would switch from Labour to the SNP on a uniform swing include: Linlithgow, Livingston, East Kilbride, Kilmarnock and Loudon, Cunninghame North, West Renfrewshire, Govan, Paisley South, Cumbernauld and Kilsyth, Falkirk West (Dennis Canavan not standing), Dundee West.

Weber Shandwick Public Affairs calculated the poll using an average of the most recent opinion polls by five different polling organisations.