FINAL POLL OF POLLS: LABOUR FOUR SHORT TO FORM MAJORITY COALITION
www.ScotlandVotes.com shows SNP 5 seats ahead and able to form a wafer thin coalition majority with the Lib Dems
The day before Scotland votes and Weber Shandwick’s latest Poll of Polls predicts that the SNP would be the largest party in the parliament with 48 seats. However, Labour is only five seats behind on 43.
With the Lib Dems projected to pick up 18 seats, only the SNP would be in a position to form a majority coalition with them.
However, historically the opinion polls are notoriously poor at picking up votes for the minor parties and independents therefore the actual result could be much closer. Any gains for the smaller parties are most likely to impact the SNP.
For the constituency vote the poll puts Labour on 31%, SNP on 36%, Conservatives on 13%, and Liberal Democrats on 15%. For the regional vote Labour are on 28%, SNP on 32%, Conservatives and Liberal Democrats on 13%, Green Party on 5% and SSP on 2%. Other parties pick up 5% on the constituency and 6% on the regional vote.
Using Weber Shandwick’s election predictor, this poll of polls would see 43 Labour MSPs, 48 SNP, 16 Conservatives 18 Liberal Democrats, and 4 for the Greens.
Weber Shandwick director of public affairs Moray Macdonald said: “On the eve of the election there appears to be a slight tightening of the gap between the SNP and Labour. With the vote looking close two things will be crucial.
“Firstly, the SNP need to make good constituency gains and they need to win seats outwith the projected swing including Gordon and Glasgow Kelvin.
“Secondly, the smaller parties will play a vital role. If the Greens, SSP or independents do even slightly better than this poll suggests then that could have a major impact on which party has the most seats.
“The result tomorrow will rely on the ability of Labour and the SNP to get their vote out in the key constituencies. There is no doubt it will be worth staying up until the early hours of Friday morning to see what happens in seats like East Kilbride, Gordon, Paisley South and Livingston.
“The performance of the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats will also be important. If the Tories manage to make gains in any of their target seats, this is most likely to dent Labour. In seats like Edinburgh Central the SNP and Liberals are both fighting to take the seat from Labour. The result there could be decisive for the whole country.
“With the poll looking this close I would urge everyone on Thursday to go out and cast their vote. This time your vote really could make a difference.”