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| Constituency : |
Edinburgh South |
| Current MSP : |
Mike Pringle |
| Current Party : |
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| Majority 2007 (%) : |
5.92 |
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| 2007 Results: |
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Candidate |
Votes |
% |
% change from '03 |
| Mike Pringle | 11398 | 34.99 | +2.92 |
 | Donald Anderson | 9469 | 29.07 | -2.49 |
 | Robert Holland | 6117 | 18.78 | +4.69 |
 | Gavin Brown | 5589 | 17.16 | +0.56 |
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| Winnability |
| Swing req for LAB gain | 2.96% | | LAB winability* | 12 | | Swing req for SNP gain | 8.11% | | SNP winability* | 33 | | Swing req for CON gain | 8.92% | | CON winability* | 14 |
| * This is the rank of each seat according to marginality by party |
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Constituency Comments
Let everyone know how the party campaigns are going locally. Using the form below you can add your comments about the candidates, their chances of election and how well they are campaigning on the ground.
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| Posted Comments |
Despite all the wishful thinking by all the Tories in the comments below I note that they came third. The Tories were third with half the vote of the winning candidate. Ironically althogth the Tories do not support PR, Gavin Brown was happy to be eleceted on the regional list. The very same hypocritical Tories dotn support PR for Westminster of course.
Posted by the truth on 18/8/2008
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Chris, "this seat is now a genuine three-way marginal": maybe, but if so then the Tories are fourth. Let's see Gavin Brown try and persuade anyone that he's in with a chance in the Westminster seat in 2009 from FOURTH place. Well done Mike Pringle, and well done the SNP; goodbye Donald Anderson.
Posted by Blackford Bob on 29/5/2007
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Pringles majority here begs the question will Griffiths manage to hang on here at the next general election? I under stand the Lib Dems candidate at the next general election is Fred Macintosh. My understanding is that he is a very strong candidate. This seat will change at the next general election. The Tories are well behind here and the talking up of Brown by Tory Chris was unfounded. By the way your pals in Stirling Perth and co did not fair well. Ash
Posted by on 7/5/2007
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LD 34 Lab 26 SNP 20 C 20
Posted by on 4/5/2007
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Hey last poster! Ouch! I don't remember posting on North & Leith (perhaps it was another Chris), but yes, I have been doing the rounds somewhat, although only about 8 out of 72! I'm not going to apologise for that. I'm in the position where I have my ear to the ground with a few of the campaigns, I thought folks might be interested, that's all. As for the comment viz Perth, Liz Smith was my teacher at school, I think I passed a light hearted remark there. So what if I'm a fan of a candidate? Edinburgh West was a genuine enquiry. I have tried to be objective and fair handed as possible in what I've said, I've tried never to be gratuitous or personal. As regards the substance of the last comment, I agree with a lot of it; my point is that even if the Labour vote here stalled, a swing from Pringle to Brown could mean this is the only Labour gain of the evening, depending on the Labour to SNP swing. This is a volatile seat, in 1999, the Nats were second, in 2003, the Lib Dems came from third (which is why I was surprised they wrote Gavin Brown off in 2005). I don't think that is an unfair analysis, last poster! As regards the megaphone, I have not campaigned at all in this election, but I don't reckon I would need batteries. My voice is loud enough as it is!
Posted by Chris on 2/5/2007
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Chris is I am sure one of the young Tories who was seen at the beginning of the campaign with a mega phone with out batteries. Chris seems to be doing the rounds. He has been posting in Pentlands, Edinburgh W, North and Leith, Sterling and Perth. It seems he is a fan of the Tory candidate in Perth. Brown is not going to win in Edinburgh South his real interest is to take over from Lord Douglas as the List Msp.My prediction is Pringle will hold on here, Margeret Smith will hold Edinburgh West with ease, and Edinburgh Central will be a gain for the Lib Dems. I also feel that Edinburgh North and Leith could see the Lib Dems make major advances. On a higher turnout Crockett got with 2000 votes of winning the seat. The Tories main hope is Pentlands. However if the SNP were to remain on 38% plus according to the seat swing ometer The Tories would loose this one. However I think the results could be alot closer than we all think. Prediction on higher turnout in Edinburgh South, Pringle 10'400 Anderson 10'100, Browne 7'000 and Holland 5'000 Maj 300 The Tory Terminator
Posted by on 1/5/2007
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I am sure C
Posted by on 1/5/2007
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I remember the Lib Dems in Edinburgh South in 2005 putting round leaflets with bar charts based on the Holyrood boundaries (excluding Fairmilehead and South Morningside) to persuade Conservatives that they couldn't win. They handed out leaflets the night before the election saying 'Vote Tory and make Blair happy'. This was after their leader telling people to 'vote for what they believed in'.The Lib Dems fought the most negative campaign I have ever seen in South at the last election, and thoroughly deserved to lose. Gavin Brown and Nigel Griffiths fought largely positive campaigns by contrast, and the seat is now a three way marginal, whatever the Lib Dems try to spin. To 'blame' Tories for them loing by voting for the man they wanted to win is so arrogant and contemptuous of the electorate it is beyond belief. This kind of campaigning debases democracy by excluding all parties except the top two. All parties do it and it's plain wrong. Vote for what you believe in!
Posted by Chris on 1/5/2007
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I remember Labour and the Tories claiming that it was a fight between the two of them in 2005 and that the Lib Dems didn't have a chance. They both new that the Tories couldn't win but Labour wanted to confuse the tactical voter and the Tories wanted to keep the Lib Dems out because they were afraid of being challenged as the 2nd Party in Westminster. It worked. The Lib Dems came in 400 votes behind Labour and the Tories several thousand votes behind either. The Tories had managed to keep Labour in. At Holyrood the Tories want to get Labour in because they're scared of becoming the 4th party with less seats than Labour, the Lib Dems or the SNP. The Tories can't win Edinburgh South but they can split the anti-Labour vote to stem the rise of the Lib Dems and make themselves look less insignificant in the analysis. The truth is it's Labour or the Lib Dems in Edinburgh South and I really hope it's the Lib Dems - Mike Pringle's been great for Edinburgh South!
Posted by Simon on 30/4/2007
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It is pretty obvious that the result here will be either a Lib Dem hold or a narrow Labour win, no one else has a realistic chance. The only Labour leaflet I have received so far (Meadows/Morningside matters) states "Locally it's a straight fight between Labour and the Lib Dems."
Posted by Jon on 23/4/2007
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It's interesting to get all the leaflets from political parties when it really is a tight vote. At our house we seem to be getting buckets of them from everyone - and of varying qualities. I have to say that some of the stories we're told just don't wash - they ignore us all year and then make a heap of desperate, empty promises - or just spout a load of rubbish that Central Office emailed to them that morning. No thanks. I've been impressed that the Lib Dems have done what they've promised for our area and at least they don't ignore us until they need our vote. I haven't absolutely decided, but I think I'll vote for the Lib Dem this time (but I hope my old man doesn't find out!) I can't really understand people saying that the Tory can get in. They got half the vote of each of the other two parties! Am I missing something. I will say that the young Tory is running around lots - why has nobody told him he hasn't got a hope?
Posted by Helen J on 22/4/2007
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I live in this constituency and I don't remember any contact from the Tories since the 2005 General Election. How on earth can Gavin Brown be portrayed as a strong candidate if the Tories do absolutely nothing! I strongly suspect that Labour are trying to talk up the Tory "challenge" to take votes away from the Lib Dems. The Lib Dems genuinely seem to care about this area,they keep in touch throughout the year not just at election time. Mike Pringle will be getting my vote and it is a positive vote based on my perception of his performance.
Posted by Jon on 21/4/2007
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I used to live in this constituency I know live in Ayr, I have spoke to a number of my friends who still live in the area and they seem to think that Gavin Brown appears to be making waves int he area, however I feel this could be too much of a mountain to climb ,I do feel he will make the biggest increase of the share of the vote and may take the Westminster seat if he continues to campaign hard. My prediction Labour 11500 Conservatives 11100 Lib Dem 6000 SNP 5500
Posted by Interested Observer on 19/4/2007
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I've am in half a mind to go and help the Lib Dems here. We are doing very badly, its looking like Mike is going to finish third, our canvassing has shown Gavin Brown and Donald Anderson neck and neck. I hope we can hang in the but it looks like our support is heading to Gavin in droves i hate to think of us losing a seat but i'd rather the Tory got it than Labour.
Posted by Lucy on 15/4/2007
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I'm seeing this seat as a clear choice of do I like Mike Pringles record as my MSP? No, I don't, so he has lost my vote. Do I like Donald Andersons performance as a Councillor? No, I don't, he was a disaster for this city. So that leaves Brown & Holland. Brown has a track record of being commited to Edinburgh South from elections in the past, so my vote is a swing from Pringle to Brown.
Posted by Steven James on 10/4/2007
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This one is a fascinating contest. Strong as Gavin Brown may be it is hard to see how the tories can achieve second place. This one really is a straight fight between Anderson and Pringle. Pringle has been a notably poor MSP so that combined with Anderson's high profile may just be enough to win it for labour. Many people feel that Mackay ran a very poor campaign in 2003 and should really have hung on. Anderson is working harder this time, so you never know! Interestingly Pringle and Brown are virtually guaranteed to become MSPs whatever happens, due to their first place on the lothians list for their respective parties, whereas Anderson has risked everything, giving up his council seat to fight it out.
Posted by David R on 6/4/2007
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Hopefully Donald Anderson can take this seat from the lib dems. We've been caught on the back foot by Gavin Brown's and his high profile from 2005 campaign, but we should be able to nose ahead of them. Its a clear choice, vote labour or the tories will get in here.
Posted by John on 6/4/2007
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With recent revelations about Pringle it looks like the Liberal Democrat vote will decline more than the Labour vote which means labour might just be able to win this one.
Posted by on 5/4/2007
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This is an interesting one. To be honest, neither Mike Pringle or Donald Anderson have exactly covered themselves in glory in Edinburgh South. Gavin Brown seems to be running a strong campaign, the SNP are really nowhere here. It boils down to this: The Lib Dem vote for Holyrood doesn't appear to be at anything like the levels of their Westminster vote. A lot of folks in this seat voted Liberal in 2005 purely to get Labour out. This time it's different. Anderson as leader of the council and a local councillor is well known, but the unpopularity of his administration could play aginst him. If Labour voters go to the SNP, and Liberal voters go back to the Tories (which is to a degree looking increasingly possible given Brown's campaign and the 2995 result), then this really becomes a 4 way tussle. Too close to call.
Posted by Chris on 4/4/2007
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Gavin Brown is a very hard worker and will certainly take the tories into 2nd place in this seat. His place on the list also suggest he will get into holyrood-just the sort of bloke we need speaking up for Edinburgh.
Posted by John on 19/3/2007
| As pompous as Mike Pringle is, he'll hang on to the seat. The real battle is for 2nd place between Labour and Tories. Which could be interesting given the unpopularity of the Labour council.
Posted by on 12/2/2007
| Gavin Brown, he can't even come up with 5 reasons to vote for him!
Posted by on 6/2/2007
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